The June 2024 and earlier 190 cases have dried up, or nearly...

The June 2024 and earlier 190 cases have dried up, or nearly so.

In my update written on 1 February 2025 (https://smartvisaguide.com/posts/12803), I said since we suddenly saw 7 February 2025 and 3 March 2025 grants in the last three days of January 2025, it means the 190 cases lodged in June 2024 and earlier months likely has dried up.

I crunched some numbers and found it is likely the case.

I went to the SVG database, selected "190", "granted", and "non-priority", and kept loading more until roughly 28 November 2025, near the time of the last FOI reply.

I used the search bar to search keywords "lodged", "2023", "JAN 2024", "FEB 2024", "MAR 2024", "APR 2024", "MAY 2024", and "JUN 2024", because the "lodged" keyword provides an automatic count for all cases granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, the "2023" keywords provides an automatic count for cases lodged in 2023 granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, and the same for the six "monthly" keywords. I did deduct the occurrences of such keywords seen on the "Recent Activity" and "Most Bookmarked" sidebars.

There are cases which do not directly show lodgement dates but things like "Submitted Documents [blah blah]", "Received s56 Request [blah blah]", etc, and I simply did not click them open and just ignored them, because they should not make a huge statistical difference anyway. It is a bit strange for me in terms of why some cases do not show lodgement dates, but anyway.

Between roughly 28 November 2025 and 12 December 2025, there are 110 grant cases counted, including 74 (67.3%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 36 (32.7%) lodged in July 2024 or later.

Between roughly 12 December 2025 and 30 January 2026, there are 114 grant cases counted, including 37 (32.5%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 77 (67.5%) lodged in July or later.

The number is significant, because using the latest FOI reply, we can find that for the August, September, October, and November 190 visa grants, the percentage numbers for cases lodged in June 2024 or earlier were 67.0%, 53.4%, 60.9%, and 71.7%, and my estimates using the SVG database extrapolate the number to be around 67.3% for December 2025, well within the normal range, but drastically dropped to 32.5%, which means DHA is definitely pivoting toward July 2024 and later 190 cases, and the only plausible explanation is that the June 2024 and earlier 190 cases are either essentially and practically dried up or nearly so.

For more comprehensive and exhaustive information, please visit my original post (link below), and I will copy and paste all my updates to it as well, so liking, bookmarking, and replying all make me more willing to keep updating.

https://smartvisaguide.com/posts/12419