Explore your Australian Skilled Visa Options

First, what will be the allocation level versus planning level for the 2025-2026 budget year? For now, we already know the planning level is 35500 for all primary and secondary applicants, so if the allocation level stays relatively low, resulting in far less than 35500 new primary and secondary applicants, then the existing visa backlog queue will further reduce, and you will not be competing against more and more onshore and offshore 190 visa applicants for limited slots, but will have more and more slots available for you.

For now, it is very likely that there will not be more than 29000 new primary and secondary 190 visa applicants in the 2025-2026 budget year, perhaps even less, so this is a good news, meaning, you just need to wait a bit longer than onshore applicants who lodged in the same or adjacent months, but it is not bleak.

If the first point is true, it is not as bad as it appears.

Second, what will be the allocation level versus planning level for subsequent budget years? The logic is exactly the same, so I am not going to repeat myself here.

Similarly, if the second point is true, then it is not so bleak, just a bit extra waiting time.

Third, will processing priorities change, and in what way? This is a question quite hard to speculate, but I reckon the prioritization of onshore applicants over their offshore counterparts will likely not change drastically.

There may also be a general clean-up of the very old backlogs, such as those lodged before 1 July 2024 but still waiting, considering their size is pretty small, so cleaning them up may not make the processing times look too bad.

(Part II)

For those waiting for invitations, generally speaking, regardless of whether you are onshore or offshore, the State and Territory requirements are going to become higher, so while onshore applicants may have an advantage, especially since certain States and Territories give limited to no slots for offshore applicants, the bar is clearly rising.

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Australia

• Software Engineer

@william_prm_adler 18H ago • Updated 18H ago

The 190 visa 12-month processing time analysis

Due to the length of my post, I will divide it into several parts within the same post, with the sequence number written at the start of each subpost, so everyone can follow easily.

Also, since I have already got my 190 visa granted, I will become less active on this forum and SVG WhatsApp groups, but I may still contributed from time to time.

(Part I)

Before I start writing anything, let me emphasize something again: the processing times on the DOHA webpages are only proxies for visa processing time trend, but they do not directly indicate your likely waiting time.

Why? Because the DOHA webpage processing time is calculated based on the distance between the dates of grant of visas approved or refused during that month (or whatever calculation window) and their respective lodgement dates, meaning, for example, if DOHA is, for whatever reason, allocating more resources processing much older or much newer cohorts, then the processing times may look deceptively fast or slow.

Now let me start defining three concepts.

Concept 1: the lower 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 10/12-month processing percentage.

It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the previous calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.

For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of July 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.

If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of July 2023, then it took him or her 10 full months to be granted.

If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of July 2023, then it took him or her 12 full months to be granted.

Hence, it is called the lower 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a tight-window definition, and also called the 10/12-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 10 and 12 full months.

Concept 2: the standard 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 11/13-month processing percentage.

It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the same calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.

For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of August 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.

If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of August 2023, then it took him or her 11 full months to be granted.

If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of August 2023, then it took him or her 13 full months to be granted.

Hence, it is called the standard 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a standard-window definition, and also called the 11/13-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 11 and 13 full months.

Concept 3: the upper 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 12/14-month processing percentage.

It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the next calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.

For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of September 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.

If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of September 2023, then it took him or her 12 full months to be granted.

If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of September 2023, then it took him or her 14 full months to be granted.

Hence, it is called the upper 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a loose-window definition, and also called the 12/14-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 12 and 14 full months.

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