@william_prm_adler
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The June 2024 and earlier 190 cases have dried up, or nearly so.
In my update written on 1 February 2025 (https://smartvisaguide.com/posts/12803), I said since we suddenly saw 7 February 2025 and 3 March 2025 grants in the last three days of January 2025, it means the 190 cases lodged in June 2024 and earlier months likely has dried up.
I crunched some numbers and found it is likely the case.
I went to the SVG database, selected "190", "granted", and "non-priority", and kept loading more until roughly 28 November 2025, near the time of the last FOI reply.
I used the search bar to search keywords "lodged", "2023", "JAN 2024", "FEB 2024", "MAR 2024", "APR 2024", "MAY 2024", and "JUN 2024", because the "lodged" keyword provides an automatic count for all cases granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, the "2023" keywords provides an automatic count for cases lodged in 2023 granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, and the same for the six "monthly" keywords. I did deduct the occurrences of such keywords seen on the "Recent Activity" and "Most Bookmarked" sidebars.
There are cases which do not directly show lodgement dates but things like "Submitted Documents [blah blah]", "Received s56 Request [blah blah]", etc, and I simply did not click them open and just ignored them, because they should not make a huge statistical difference anyway. It is a bit strange for me in terms of why some cases do not show lodgement dates, but anyway.
Between roughly 28 November 2025 and 12 December 2025, there are 110 grant cases counted, including 74 (67.3%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 36 (32.7%) lodged in July 2024 or later.
Between roughly 12 December 2025 and 30 January 2026, there are 114 grant cases counted, including 37 (32.5%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 77 (67.5%) lodged in July or later.
The number is significant, because using the latest FOI reply, we can find that for the August, September, October, and November 190 visa grants, the percentage numbers for cases lodged in June 2024 or earlier were 67.0%, 53.4%, 60.9%, and 71.7%, and my estimates using the SVG database extrapolate the number to be around 67.3% for December 2025, well within the normal range, but drastically dropped to 32.5%, which means DHA is definitely pivoting toward July 2024 and later 190 cases, and the only plausible explanation is that the June 2024 and earlier 190 cases are either essentially and practically dried up or nearly so.
For more comprehensive and exhaustive information, please visit my original post (link below), and I will copy and paste all my updates to it as well, so liking, bookmarking, and replying all make me more willing to keep updating.
Can someone explain to me why people can get visa grants (whether permanent, temporary, student, tourist, etc) on weekends? If DHA uses manual processing, do DHA staff work on weekends? If DHA uses automatic processing, does it really takes the computers days to process even the relatively simple ones like tourist visas? Pretty sure permanent visas are not automatically processed, not even the 191 visa.
Quick end-of-January 190 processing update:
From 28 January 2025, I have already counted 7 grants for February 2025 lodgements, and on 30 January 2025, I counted 3 grants for March 2025 lodgements.
Also, it seems grants for those lodged in June 2024 or earlier months are tiny in the recent 1 or 2 weeks compared to grants for those lodged in July 2024 or later months.
What does it mean? It means the number of cases for those lodged in June 2024 or earlier months, which was 3271 by the end of November 2025, likely has essentially dried to below 1000 or even below 500 if not lower.
Therefore, we will continue seeing grants for those lodged in November and December 2025 and the first half of 2026, and likely even grants for those lodged between July and September 2026 near the end of the 2025-2026 program year.
For more comprehensive analyses and predictions, see my post below, and I will make updates from time to time. Remember, for all the predictions, the current variables are how many people they will invite and how many people they will grant in the 2026-2027 program year, which is why I have not made predictions above and beyond the 30 June 2026 yet.
Quick 190 visa analyses and prediction based on the Nov 2025 FOI reply.
On 31 October 2025, there were 5497 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2024 or earlier.
On 30 November 2025, the number was 3271, a 2200-plus reduction.
We can see the number of remaining cases on 30 June, 31 July, 31 August, 30 September, 31 October, and 30 November 2025 for those lodged no later than 30 June 2024 were 11280, 9848, 8608, 7488, 5497, and 3271, an 8000-plus reduction.
Also on 30 November 2025, there were 19558 pending cases for those lodged during the 2024-2025 program year, and on the same day, out of the 33000 planned 190 visas to be granted, 12091 were already granted, leaving 20909 available for the rest 7 months of the 2025-2026 program year, or roughly 2987 grants per month for the rest 7 months.
The monthly number of cases lodged on or before 30 June 2024 had been pendulating between 1100 and 2300, so even if we use 1000 as a conservative number, assuming they want to just finish off these early cases, then by no later than the end of February, we should see very little of these cases left and thus see a good uptick of number of cases lodged during the 2024-2025 program year to be cleared.
If they want to finish off these early cases even faster, then we would see the uptick even slightly earlier than the end of February, since there were only 3271 cases left by 30 November 2025, and if they decided to reduce the speed to clear these earlier cases, then we also still see an uptick for the processing of 2024-2025 program year cases.
So regardless, we should start seeing uptick of grants for 2024-2025 program year cases no later than the end of February.
Together, there were 22829 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2025 or earlier on 30 November 2025, so based on the remaining grant slots, a huge percent of those lodged by 30 June 2025 will be processed by the end of the current program year.
What happened to 491 last program year?
It had a 33000 planning level, yet only granted a bit less than 24000 in total?
Why did they waste so many 491 grant slots when there were already quite huge backlogs there, even though not as horrible as 190 backlogs?
Were there too many 191 backlogs so they wanted to reduce 491 grants to mitigate the works three years later? Or some other reasons?
By the way, do we know how many 191 backlogs are there?
Can someone explain to me why 189, 190, and 491 have quite different refusal rates?
Using the aggregate data from July 2024 to October 2025, I got the following:
For 189, the primary refusal rate was 3.14% if withdrawals included and 3.18% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 189, the overall refusal rate was 2.63% if withdrawals included and 2.66% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the primary refusal rate was 1.48% if withdrawals included and 1.50% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the overall refusal rate was 1.31% if withdrawals included and 1.32% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the primary refusal rate was 2.36% if withdrawals included and 2.45% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the overall refusal rate was 2.16% if withdrawals included and 2.25% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation.
The calculation formulas are (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p + withdrawal_p), (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p), (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o), and (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o) for the four scenarios, with "p" and "o" standing for primary and overall here.
With over 20K cases for 189, 40K cases for 190, and 30K cases for 491, I believe these numbers should be statistically significant.
Why are we seeing the lowest refusal rates for 190, medium refusal rates for 491, and highest refusal rates for 189 applications?
Other than nurses, teachers (early childhood, primary, secondary), allied health professionals (medical technologies, physiotherapists, anesthesists, etc), and social workers, what occupations are being treated as de facto priority occupations now for 189, 190, 191, and 491 visas? I have been seeing carpenters, welders, and many construction-related applicants getting granted lightning fast recently.
When will they start processing this year's 190 lodgements?
I have been tracking 190 grant database here for a while, and I have been seeing grants for 190 applications lodged from July 2023 to June 2024, especially July 2023 to December 2023, in the last month or so.
In contrast, as of 30 September 2025, based on the data provided by FOI requests, only 5 out of the 1610 cases lodged by 30 September 2025 in this program year have been processed.
I have also note seen 190 visa grants for those applied during the current program year in our database here either.
So, when will they start processing this year's 190 applications? Seems very different from the last program year, where they almost immediately started processing current cases.
Should I take a one-year study in nursing, carpentry, social work, or teaching?
I just lodged my 190 visa application, but due to the long processing time for non-priority occupations, I wonder if it would be a good idea to take a one-year study, then wait for 189 invitation, then lodge a 189 visa application.
(Note: This post is pure rage bait, but please engage my bait. Thank you.)
How is the processing time for various visas calculated? Yes, I know it is based on the average between visa lodgements and visa decisions, whether grant, refusal, or withdrawal. But which batches of visa decisions? The decisions last 4 weeks? The decisions last 3 months? Or what? Also, do they use the simple average, some kind of weighted average, some kind of exponential average, or what?
We should be approaching an inflection point this program year.
As noted in, our 190 backlog level has been reduced by around 4000 last program year, down to the near 35000 level.
This year, while we still do not have the State and Territory nomination quotas yet, based on what we have heard, namely the quotas will be reduced by around 22% across States and Territories, we can use 13200 as an approximate number for all 190 nominations. Then using 2 as the approximate family size, we would have no more than 26400 nominations for 190 visa this program year.
Then we will have delays due to documentation gathering and two onshore candidates applying as a couple (primary and secondary), we would have even less actual lodgements. Last program year, a total of roughly 29000 applications for 190 visa were lodged, so this program year, we can also take an educated guess that no more than 25000 applications will be lodged.
Using some very rough math, the backlog should be reduced by at least 8000 by the end of this program year and if we still have 33000 planning level for 190 visa the next program year, then the backlog would be even lower than the planning level, which means even more people will get processed within 12 months.
Regardless, a lot of us who apply for 190 this program year will get processed within 12 months even if we are not priority candidates. Hopefully this helps.
I got my PTE score near the end of February 2023, with 90 for all four subjects. What worries me is that they continue dragging things out to the point of no state and territory nomination even late in February 2026, then my PTE score would have expired.
For your information, I have received an email from the Tasmanian government saying they have granted a provisional application for my nomination application, and they will nominate me once they get the quota. The 85 interim slots they got for 190 have been used up for applicants whose visas are expiring sooner than mine.
So I have two questions:
(1) With my English capability, how much time should I spend to be able to get superior English again, namely equivalent to IELTS 8 for all four subjects?
(2) If I somehow bomb my tests and just keep getting equivalent of IELTS 7, will it invalidate my nomination?
Should I be safe for my situation? I submitted my TAS 190 application last fiscal year and got an email noticing me of a provisional nomination in July, which is three months ago. My TAS 190 application went via the skilled graduate pathway. I just saw changes on TAS 190 rules, but I think since (1) I applied via the skilled graduate pathway, which has not changed in priority attributes, and (2) they have already said I have received a TAS provisional nomination, I should be safe here? Hopefully nothing will go wrong on me.
Is it okay to live in a friend's house? I have lived in Tasmania for over 4 years, renting different places. Recently, I moved to live in the house of a local friend whom I befriended in some occasions. I have the part-time work payslips from my current job and local spending proof via bank statements, such as groceries, restaurants, and bus fares. Will it be acceptable if I am applying for the 190 visa? Feel free to ask for clarifications if there are any ambiguities.
I have received a 190 nomination from Tasmania (called "Provisional Approval" in email), telling me once state and territory allocations are released, they will confirm my nomination with the Department of Home Affairs. However, is it possible for my nomination to be affected by the new policies or points test system? I feel unlikely, but still want to ask. @gregormendel @biotechy
Can I get refused of invitation because of how I claimed my degrees?
I got a Tasmanian pre-invite and submitted my application to state nomination recently. I just realized something.
Before coming to Australia, I had a 4-year American degree. I had the first 1.5 years at one university and transferred to another university for the rest 2.5 years, and I just realized I just put the 4 years into one single university, though my courses from both universities are shown on the transcript of the university that conferred my bachelor degree.
Then in Australia, I had a non-Tasmanian master degree, yet I switched my major in the middle of the degree, yet I just raelized I just only wrote the final degree conferred, not including the degree I did not finish before switching to the new major, though I included my whole time in the non-Tasmanian university studying both the initial degree and the later degree I completed.
Then I came to Tasmania and had a 2-year full-time master degree, no switch of major, fully present in Tasmania.
I claimed to have Australian qualification(s) at bachelor or master level, because I did finish two masters in Australia, and I claim to have Tasmanian qualification, because one of my two Australian masters is from Tasmania. Can the information I provided be considered incomplete or incorrect information? What will they do? If they do something, what are my options?
Please note, from my understanding, I did not over-claim any points, since I have Tasmanian qualifications to back up my claim for Australian qualification points and regional study points, unless I got it wrong.
Can someone help me do the 190 math here?
Using the latest spreadsheet, I can see there were around 35000 on-hand cases at the start of the 2024-2025 financial year.
I can also see by the end of May, there had been roughly 25000 new applications made in the same financial year, plus about 33000 grants and a few hundreds of refusals and withdrawals.
Yet, there are around 31000 on-hand cases in total.
So, if the number of grants, refusals, and withdrawals are 8000-9000 higher than the number of 190 visa lodgements, why do we only see a 4000 decline of on-hand cases?
What did I get wrong?
Does anyone know how many 189/190 lodgements and grants are from and to priority occupation applicants, and how many non-priority occupation applicants? If not, any reasonable estimates?
Also, we have 16500 new 190 allocations for the eight States and Territories for the 2024-25 financial year, but why am I seeing a total of over 20000 lodgements for the same financial year by the end of April already? How does it make any sense? How can there be more lodgements than allocations?
And no, the 33000 number is for visa grants, not invitation allocations, which is the 16500 number, from my understanding.
Are my bank statements considered alright? A bit tricky situation here.
I share a bank account with a family member outside Australia. The family member is the account owner, and owns the first card, and I own the second card of the account. Since the two cards belong to one single account, the bank can only print bank statements showing card activities from both cards.
The transactions include "date", "description" (merchant), "currency amount (my home country)", and "last four digits", and include both English and local language for these titles. However, the names of the merchants were not translated into English, which means the bank statements show English names for my transactions and non=English names for transactions made by my family member.
The bank has produced an English letter certifying the number of the credit card I use, which can correspond to the last four digits for each transaction.
We were in a rush so we did not have the time to provide NAATI-certified translations for all these bank statements, leaving lots of non-English names on the bank statements.
We just provided the bank proof letter and a letter explaining that those non-English names do not come from my transactions, based on the letter produced by the bank.
Does it pose an issue? If so, will I have a chance to provide a translation?