Quick 190 visa analyses and prediction based on the Nov 2025 FOI reply.
On 31 October 2025, there were 5497 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2024 or earlier.
On 30 November 2025, the number was 3271, a 2200-plus reduction.
We can see the number of remaining cases on 30 June, 31 July, 31 August, 30 September, 31 October, and 30 November 2025 for those lodged no later than 30 June 2024 were 11280, 9848, 8608, 7488, 5497, and 3271, an 8000-plus reduction.
Also on 30 November 2025, there were 19558 pending cases for those lodged during the 2024-2025 program year, and on the same day, out of the 33000 planned 190 visas to be granted, 12091 were already granted, leaving 20909 available for the rest 7 months of the 2025-2026 program year, or roughly 2987 grants per month for the rest 7 months.
The monthly number of cases lodged on or before 30 June 2024 had been pendulating between 1100 and 2300, so even if we use 1000 as a conservative number, assuming they want to just finish off these early cases, then by no later than the end of February, we should see very little of these cases left and thus see a good uptick of number of cases lodged during the 2024-2025 program year to be cleared.
If they want to finish off these early cases even faster, then we would see the uptick even slightly earlier than the end of February, since there were only 3271 cases left by 30 November 2025, and if they decided to reduce the speed to clear these earlier cases, then we also still see an uptick for the processing of 2024-2025 program year cases.
So regardless, we should start seeing uptick of grants for 2024-2025 program year cases no later than the end of February.
Together, there were 22829 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2025 or earlier on 30 November 2025, so based on the remaining grant slots, a huge percent of those lodged by 30 June 2025 will be processed by the end of the current program year.
Update no 2 (2 February 2026):
The June 2024 and earlier 190 cases have dried up, or nearly so.
In my update written on 1 February 2025 (https://smartvisaguide.com/posts/12803), I said since we suddenly saw 7 February 2025 and 3 March 2025 grants in the last three days of January 2025, it means the 190 cases lodged in June 2024 and earlier months likely has dried up.
I crunched some numbers and found it is likely the case.
I went to the SVG database, selected "190", "granted", and "non-priority", and kept loading more until roughly 28 November 2025, near the time of the last FOI reply.
I used the search bar to search keywords "lodged", "2023", "JAN 2024", "FEB 2024", "MAR 2024", "APR 2024", "MAY 2024", and "JUN 2024", because the "lodged" keyword provides an automatic count for all cases granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, the "2023" keywords provides an automatic count for cases lodged in 2023 granted on roughly 28 November 2025 or later, and the same for the six "monthly" keywords. I did deduct the occurrences of such keywords seen on the "Recent Activity" and "Most Bookmarked" sidebars.
There are cases which do not directly show lodgement dates but things like "Submitted Documents [blah blah]", "Received s56 Request [blah blah]", etc, and I simply did not click them open and just ignored them, because they should not make a huge statistical difference anyway. It is a bit strange for me in terms of why some cases do not show lodgement dates, but anyway.
Between roughly 28 November 2025 and 12 December 2025, there are 110 grant cases counted, including 74 (67.3%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 36 (32.7%) lodged in July 2024 or later.
Between roughly 12 December 2025 and 30 January 2026, there are 114 grant cases counted, including 37 (32.5%) lodged in June 2024 or earlier and 77 (67.5%) lodged in July or later.
The number is significant, because using the latest FOI reply, we can find that for the August, September, October, and November 190 visa grants, the percentage numbers for cases lodged in June 2024 or earlier were 67.0%, 53.4%, 60.9%, and 71.7%, and my estimates using the SVG database extrapolate the number to be around 67.3% for December 2025, well within the normal range, but drastically dropped to 32.5%, which means DHA is definitely pivoting toward July 2024 and later 190 cases, and the only plausible explanation is that the June 2024 and earlier 190 cases are either essentially and practically dried up or nearly so.
Original update link:
https://smartvisaguide.com/posts/12828