Quick 190 visa analyses and prediction based on the Nov 2025...
@william_prm_adler (1W ago| Updated 1W ago)Quick 190 visa analyses and prediction based on the Nov 2025 FOI reply.
On 31 October 2025, there were 5497 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2024 or earlier.
On 30 November 2025, the number was 3271, a 2200-plus reduction.
We can see the number of remaining cases on 30 June, 31 July, 31 August, 30 September, 31 October, and 30 November 2025 for those lodged no later than 30 June 2024 were 11280, 9848, 8608, 7488, 5497, and 3271, an 8000-plus reduction.
Also on 30 November 2025, there were 19558 pending cases for those lodged during the 2024-2025 program year, and on the same day, out of the 33000 planned 190 visas to be granted, 12091 were already granted, leaving 20909 available for the rest 7 months of the 2025-2026 program year, or roughly 2987 grants per month for the rest 7 months.
The monthly number of cases lodged on or before 30 June 2024 had been pendulating between 1100 and 2300, so even if we use 1000 as a conservative number, assuming they want to just finish off these early cases, then by no later than the end of February, we should see very little of these cases left and thus see a good uptick of number of cases lodged during the 2024-2025 program year to be cleared.
If they want to finish off these early cases even faster, then we would see the uptick even slightly earlier than the end of February, since there were only 3271 cases left by 30 November 2025, and if they decided to reduce the speed to clear these earlier cases, then we also still see an uptick for the processing of 2024-2025 program year cases.
So regardless, we should start seeing uptick of grants for 2024-2025 program year cases no later than the end of February.
Together, there were 22829 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2025 or earlier on 30 November 2025, so based on the remaining grant slots, a huge percent of those lodged by 30 June 2025 will be processed by the end of the current program year.
Showing 3 comments
Update (1 February 2026):
From 28 January 2025, I have already counted 7 grants for February 2025 lodgements, and on 30 January 2025, I counted 3 grants for March 2025 lodgements.
Also, it seems grants for those lodged in June 2024 or earlier months are tiny in the recent 1 or 2 weeks compared to grants for those lodged in July 2024 or later months.
What does it mean? It means the number of cases for those lodged in June 2024 or earlier months, which was 3271 by the end of November 2025, likely has essentially dried to below 1000 or even below 500 if not lower.
Therefore, we will continue seeing grants for those lodged in November and December 2025 and the first half of 2026, and likely even grants for those lodged between July and September 2026 near the end of the 2025-2026 program year.
For more comprehensive analyses and predictions, see my post below, and I will make updates from time to time. Remember, for all the predictions, the current variables are how many people they will invite and how many people they will grant in the 2026-2027 program year, which is why I have not made predictions above and beyond the 30 June 2026 yet.
Original update link:
TLDR:
(1) On 30 November 2025, there were only 3271 pending cases for those lodged on 30 June 2024 or earlier;
(2) Whether the Department of Home Affairs choose to process these early cases fast or slow, we should see an uptick of grants for those lodged during the 2024-2025 program year by no later than the end of February this year;
(3) By the end of the 2025-2026 program year, the majority of those who lodged on or before 30 June 2025 will likely already be processed;
(4) For those lodged during the 2025-2026 program year, unless the Department of Home Affairs drastically decrease the grant level, drastically increases the invitation level, or does both for the 2026-2027 program year, you should not have to worry about your cases dragging for too long, so good luck, fingers crossed.