Can someone help me do the 190 math here?
Using the latest spreadsheet, I can see there were around 35000 on-hand cases at the start of the 2024-2025 financial year.
I can also see by the end of May, there had been roughly 25000 new applications made in the same financial year, plus about 33000 grants and a few hundreds of refusals and withdrawals.
Yet, there are around 31000 on-hand cases in total.
So, if the number of grants, refusals, and withdrawals are 8000-9000 higher than the number of 190 visa lodgements, why do we only see a 4000 decline of on-hand cases?
What did I get wrong?
@gregormendel · 1y ago
and subtract around 800 for withdrawn + refused ~= 28K
@william_prm_adler · 1y ago
But the thing is, it says there were 35000 on-hand cases at the start of the year, right, or is 35000 the number at the end of July instead of June?
Still, even if we started with 37000 on-hand cases, by the end of May, we are seeing 31000 on-hand cases.
What else did I understand wrong? @gregormendel
@william_prm_adler · 1y ago
Okay, I see, it makes much more sense now.
At the end of July 2024, there were 35000 on-hand cases, whereas there were 4200 grants and 400 lodgements in the same month, so at the beginning of July 2024, there should be about 39000 on-hand cases. Now it does make sense. The 31000 number is right.
Good, we have seen 8000 reductions of on-hand cases by the end of May, though we should see more lodgements with little to no grants in June due to the exhaustion of remaining grant slots. Still, even a 5000 or 6000 reduction still sounds like a small victory for us.