Note on Subclass 190 When FY2024-25 opened on 1 July 2024,...

Note on Subclass 190

When FY2024-25 opened on 1 July 2024, total backlog was >35K, of which nearly 65% was lodged before 30 June 2023. This means bulk of the backlog was already waiting more than 1 year. So DHA got stuck processing April/May/June 2023 for a long long time, and processing time reached > 24 months for subclass 190 by 30 June 2025.

This FY (starting 1 July 2025), the situation is much improved (screenshot below, source). The opening backlog of 34873 is more evenly spread out over the year, so DHA can churn through months more easily and uniformly.

FY2025-26 planning level is 33K. There will be new priority 190 lodgments in this FY which get granted quick (in same FY), so lets say 3K planning level is consumed by those priority grants.

So, we have 30K planning level remaining to process the current backlog as at 30 June 2025. Looking at the lodgment patterns, it's very likely that DHA will clear most 190 files lodged till April 2025 (roughly), in this FY.

Overall, we should see official processing times gradually declining towards the 14 to 18 months zone by the end of this FY.

Read more about planning levels and state allocation here chart of 190 lodgements

I want to point out that, more specifically, the 190 backlog level as of 1 July 2024 was at around the 39K level. You can deduce it by plugging in 35273 (backlog as of 31 July 2024), plus 4180 (visa granted in July 2024), 26 (visa refused in July 2024), and 35 (visa withdrawn in July 2024), minus 435 (visa lodged in July 2024), and you will get a number a bit over 39K, and throughout the 2024-2025 program year, 190 backlog level has been reduced by a bit over 4000, roughly speaking.

Yes, to be exact, it was 38,468 as per FOI.

Interesting, my calculation was a bit over 39K, so where did the discrepancy come from?

@gregormendel

Thanks, this is super useful.

If 35k applications were in backlog at 1 Jul 2024, and 65% (22.5k) were prior to 1 Jul 2023, with 33k planning level last year, why did we not see this clear by end of Jun 2025?

due to priority grants consuming planning levels (lodged and granted in same FY).

and the fact that DHA is not strictly sequential.

Very interesting. Would this not suggest around 10k grants were due to priority applicants?

I also mentioned the second factor about DHA not being strictly sequential (FIFO) in processing. FYI: Priority is around 15% of total planning level for 190.

Thank you the insights @gregormendel. How do you reason the median processing times mentioned in Visa processing times overview page. It shows around 8 months.

Isn't 190, 189, and 191 comes under the skilled permanent category? On that page, they're not saying specific subclass but instead skilled permanent.

dont worry about "that page", that's just generic stuff. Look at individual subclass processing times, and in there, look at priority vs. non-priority separately (as shown on SmartVisaGuide subclass pages).

Thanks for this @gregormendel. I see you assumed 3K priority application grants this FY. Is that an educated guess, or do we have a general pattern on the number of priority applications granted in the previous FYs?

I know the rough ratios for all subclasses (p to non-p) from previous analysis.

Thanks. Appreciate all the hard work you put into this. Helps a lot

Thanks for your insights.

Very good insight. Thank you for your effort !

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