Note on Subclass 491 FY2025-26 started on 1 July 2025, and...

Note on Subclass 491

FY2025-26 started on 1 July 2025, and the opening 491 backlog is 28741. Last FY opening backlog was > 35K, so the reduction in opening backlog compared to last FY is overall good news.

The planning level for last FY and this FY is the same = 33000 for Regional Category. Subclass 491 is a subcategory of Regional Category. Last FY there were around 24K Subclass 491 grants, this means around (24/33) ~=72% of Regional planning level of 33K was used for Subclass 491. Lets assume the same ratio (72%) for this FY, which means in current FY, 24K planning places are available for Subclass 491 grants.

When FY2024-25 (last FY) opened on 1 July 2024, total 491 backlog was >35K, of which nearly 65% was lodged before 31 July 2023. This means bulk of the backlog was already waiting more than 1 year. So DHA got stuck processing March/April/May/June/July 2023 for a long time, and processing time reached > 24 months for subclass 491 by 30 June 2025. This FY (starting 1 July 2025), the situation is much improved (screenshot below, source). The opening backlog of 28741 is more evenly spread out over the year, so DHA can churn through months more easily and uniformly.

FY2025-26 planning level available for 491 is 24K. There will be new priority 491 lodgments in this FY which get granted quick (in same FY). This ratio (priority as % of total) for 491 isn't as high as that of 190 and 189, as most priority occupations focus on 189/190 first.

Let's say 2K of the 24K planning level is consumed by those priority grants (I know these ratios from previous analyses). So, we have 24K-2K = 22K planning level remaining to process the 491 backlog as at 30 June 2025. Looking at the lodgment patterns in SmartVisaGuide as well as FOI data, it's very likely that DHA will clear most 491 files lodged till March 2025 (roughly), in this FY, potentially touching April 2025 as well. Overall, we should see official processing times gradually declining towards the 15 to 18 months zone by the end of this FY.

Read more about planning levels and state allocation here