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Note on Subclass 190 Subclass 190 case load from July to...

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Australia

Note on Subclass 190 Subclass 190 case load from July to October is small in proportion to June 2023, OR Nov 2023 onwards.

July/Aug/Sep/Oct are one months each, but they should not be viewed in terms of months because the pipeline should be viewed in terms of cases, not days/months.

So if you have lodged in July 2023, and your friend has lodged in Nov 2023, you are not 4 months part. You are practically 1 months apart if we consider that sum of caseload from July-October is roughly equal to one decent month.

COs dont process dates, they process cases.

What dates are being processed, is simply an outcome of cases getting processed. So the distribution of cases over months is what matters.

To summarise, in terms of case pipeline, June 2023 is much closer to Nov 2023 than it looks.

Now, if DHA processes July-October actively (instead of Nov 2023 onwards), then processing time will look higher, and we are approaching end of FY where these numbers might be reported somewhere / part of KPIs etc.

So, it might just make rational sense to let July-Oct wait a bit, and start processing Nov 2023 onwards (which is what DHA is doing).

Overall, July/Aug/Sep/October 2023 applicants shoudnt be surprised if they all start getting grants in rapid succession, or even at same/similar times.

P.S. Chart below is SmartVisaGuide users waiting for 190 grants. The sample size is lower than DHA (which has ALL applicants), but the sample size is large enough to give a lodgement pattern which (I know from past analysis) is very close to actual DHA lodgement pattern.

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@bot8993 1Y ago

Saw so many Dec23 grants flyby while we had similar points/conditions but we are still waiting. Canโ€™t seem to understand the algorithm.

0 replies

I applied in June 2023, and with your analysis, it seems like they have put us in backlog. Now, my question: In your experience, will they immediately come to June 2023 in the new year starting in July 2025, or will the current trend of processing applications continue? In other words, do we hope to get visa at the start of financial year or they will keep us in backlog for long time?

4 replies

@saddy2005 1Y ago

I lodged eoi in Dec 24 for Business Analyst, and currently i have 105 for 491 and 95 for 190, Can i expect my grant this year ? Thanks in Advance

2 replies

@kathy1807 1Y ago

I applied in March 2024, can I expect grants this year ? Thank you

1 replies

@ironmindsoul 1Y ago

Thanks for sharing your notes, @gregormendel โ€” really appreciate it. I applied for the 190 visa on 14 Sep 2024 and had done a similar analysis earlier. Based on current application trends, once March 2024 is cleared, grants for April to September 2024 might come around the same time. I estimate Sep 2024 grants could land around Aug-Sep 2025. Would love to hear your thoughts.

1 replies

For Nov23 onward grants, are they clearing all of the applications or its just randomly picked ?

1 replies

@zippyfox1148 1Y ago

@gregormendel Is there any similar trend for 491?

6 replies

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