Australia
Software Engineer
Can someone explain to me why 189, 190, and 491 have quite different refusal rates?
Using the aggregate data from July 2024 to October 2025, I got the following:
For 189, the primary refusal rate was 3.14% if withdrawals included and 3.18% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 189, the overall refusal rate was 2.63% if withdrawals included and 2.66% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the primary refusal rate was 1.48% if withdrawals included and 1.50% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the overall refusal rate was 1.31% if withdrawals included and 1.32% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the primary refusal rate was 2.36% if withdrawals included and 2.45% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the overall refusal rate was 2.16% if withdrawals included and 2.25% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation.
The calculation formulas are (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p + withdrawal_p), (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p), (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o), and (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o) for the four scenarios, with "p" and "o" standing for primary and overall here.
With over 20K cases for 189, 40K cases for 190, and 30K cases for 491, I believe these numbers should be statistically significant.
Why are we seeing the lowest refusal rates for 190, medium refusal rates for 491, and highest refusal rates for 189 applications?
