Note on Subclass 491 FY2025-26 started on 1 July 2025, and...
@gregormendel (2H ago| Updated 2H ago)Note on Subclass 491
FY2025-26 started on 1 July 2025, and the opening 491 backlog is 28741. Last FY opening backlog was > 35K, so the reduction in opening backlog compared to last FY is overall good news.
The planning level for last FY and this FY is the same = 33000 for Regional Category. Subclass 491 is a subcategory of Regional Category. Last FY there were around 24K Subclass 491 grants, this means around (24/33) ~=72% of Regional planning level of 33K was used for Subclass 491. Lets assume the same ratio (72%) for this FY, which means in current FY, 24K planning places are available for Subclass 491 grants.
When FY2024-25 (last FY) opened on 1 July 2024, total 491 backlog was >35K, of which nearly 65% was lodged before 31 July 2023. This means bulk of the backlog was already waiting more than 1 year. So DHA got stuck processing March/April/May/June/July 2023 for a long time, and processing time reached > 24 months for subclass 491 by 30 June 2025. This FY (starting 1 July 2025), the situation is much improved (screenshot below, source). The opening backlog of 28741 is more evenly spread out over the year, so DHA can churn through months more easily and uniformly.
FY2025-26 planning level available for 491 is 24K. There will be new priority 491 lodgments in this FY which get granted quick (in same FY). This ratio (priority as % of total) for 491 isn't as high as that of 190 and 189, as most priority occupations focus on 189/190 first.
Let's say 2K of the 24K planning level is consumed by those priority grants (I know these ratios from previous analyses). So, we have 24K-2K = 22K planning level remaining to process the 491 backlog as at 30 June 2025. Looking at the lodgment patterns in SmartVisaGuide as well as FOI data, it's very likely that DHA will clear most 491 files lodged till March 2025 (roughly), in this FY, potentially touching April 2025 as well. Overall, we should see official processing times gradually declining towards the 15 to 18 months zone by the end of this FY.
Read more about planning levels and state allocation here
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My brother has lodged 491 chef WA 30 November 2024. When can he expect the grant ? He needs it early because of some personal reasons. Can you make a rough guess in this individual profile Sir Gregor
@gregormendel Lodged 491 in July 2025...can expect a grant as early as September 2026 as per your analysis?
I think so, Q1 of FY26-27. But its very far at the moment, so timelines will keep changing, lets reassess in 6 to 9 months.
Thank you
Hello, what do you think? My agent submitted my application 15th of May, if I stay in my current workplace I will get +5 points but next July I will lose 5 point because I turn 33. Do I have any chances based on this statistic? Thank you.
your chances will actually get better, if you replace the loss in 5 age points with an gain ion 5 points due to work experience. Your profile shows 0 English points, need Proficient at minimum to have hope, ideally Superior.
Well, I will be on equal point next july like today. I will get more points hopefully this december if I stay in my current place. I have Competent band 50 PTE. Is it impossible to get an invitation or should I prepare next year for Proficient level?
@all Subclass 491 analysis here
So those who lodged non priority offshore in July 2025 can expect grant around September if planning levels are released earlier? @gregormendel