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What happened to 491 last program year?
It had a 33000 planning level, yet only granted a bit less than 24000 in total?
Why did they waste so many 491 grant slots when there were already quite huge backlogs there, even though not as horrible as 190 backlogs?
Were there too many 191 backlogs so they wanted to reduce 491 grants to mitigate the works three years later? Or some other reasons?
By the way, do we know how many 191 backlogs are there?
Hi everyone, I’m currently studying an Advanced Diploma of Hospitality Management and doing my Job Ready Program as a Chef part time in WA. My student visa is expiring in March, and I’m a bit confused about the next step. Should I continue my studies and apply for a student visa extension (based on a Bachelor’s COE), or should I apply for TR 485 instead? Also, what are the current chances of receiving an invitation as a Chef under skilled migration pathways?
Can someone explain to me why 189, 190, and 491 have quite different refusal rates?
Using the aggregate data from July 2024 to October 2025, I got the following:
For 189, the primary refusal rate was 3.14% if withdrawals included and 3.18% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 189, the overall refusal rate was 2.63% if withdrawals included and 2.66% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the primary refusal rate was 1.48% if withdrawals included and 1.50% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 190, the overall refusal rate was 1.31% if withdrawals included and 1.32% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the primary refusal rate was 2.36% if withdrawals included and 2.45% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation;
For 491, the overall refusal rate was 2.16% if withdrawals included and 2.25% if withdrawals excluded in the calculation.
The calculation formulas are (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p + withdrawal_p), (grant_p) / (grant_p + refusal_p), (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o), and (grant_o) / (grant_o + refusal_o + withdrawal_o) for the four scenarios, with "p" and "o" standing for primary and overall here.
With over 20K cases for 189, 40K cases for 190, and 30K cases for 491, I believe these numbers should be statistically significant.
Why are we seeing the lowest refusal rates for 190, medium refusal rates for 491, and highest refusal rates for 189 applications?
📙 Daily Activity Report: 05 January 2026
This report summarises visa grants, S56 requests, and invitation activity for Australian skilled visas (subclass 189, 190, and 491) based on crowdsourced data from the community.
Visa Grants
| Subclass State | Location Occupation | Lodge → Grant Date | S56 Date Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 189 - | OFFSHORE University Lecturer | 28 Aug 2025 → 05 Jan 2026 | - |
| 190 VIC | OFFSHORE Chemical Engineer | 04 Nov 2024 → 05 Jan 2026 | None (Direct Grant) |
| 190 VIC | UNKNOWN Marketing Specialist | 20 Dec 2023 → 05 Jan 2026 | 28 Sep 2025 Medical |
| 491 NSW | ONSHORE Chef | May 2024 → 05 Jan 2026 | 17 Dec 2025 PCC |
S56 Trends
| Subclass State | Location Occupation | Lodge Date | S56 Date Detail |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 - | OFFSHORE UNKNOWN | 03 Nov 2024 | 05 Jan 2026 Polio, PCC, Medical |
| 190 - | OFFSHORE UNKNOWN | 02 Nov 2024 | 05 Jan 2026 Transcript for Overseas Qualification |
| 491 QLD | OFFSHORE UNKNOWN | 01 Jun 2024 | 05 Jan 2026 PCC, Medical |
Invitation Activity
| State Subclass | Location Occupation | Points | Details |
|---|---|---|---|
| SA 190 | OFFSHORE Medical Laboratory Scientist | 70 | Preinvite received, Superior English, 15 years experience |
Trends and Patterns in S56 Requests
S56 requests issued today primarily focused on standard documentation requirements. Two subclass 190 applications lodged in early November 2024 received requests for medical-related documents (Polio certificate, PCC, and medicals) and educational documentation (overseas qualification transcripts). A subclass 491 QLD application lodged in June 2024 received requests for PCC and medicals after a longer processing period.
One notable direct grant was reported for a VIC 190 Chemical Engineer application where the applicant proactively renewed their Polio certificate and PCC, and submitted Forms 80 and 1221 upfront, resulting in no S56 requests.
The subclass 189 grant for a University Lecturer (priority occupation) was processed in approximately 4 months, while the subclass 190 VIC Marketing Specialist took approximately 12 months with one medical-related S56. The subclass 491 NSW Chef application took approximately 20 months with a late-stage PCC request after the original document expired.
Useful Resources
- Chemical Engineer VIC 190 Grant Profile: https://smartvisaguide.com/zanywalrus9201
- 190 OFFSHORE S56 Request (Polio, PCC, Medical): https://smartvisaguide.com/wackychicken4080
- 190 OFFSHORE S56 Request (Transcript): https://smartvisaguide.com/snappypenguin9510
📊 This data represents a subset of total visa activity. Only the Department of Home Affairs (DHA) and individual states possess complete grant and invitation data.
🔴 Disclaimer: This blog post is an AI-generated summary of community comments and may be updated as additional information becomes available. Due to the crowdsourced and AI-generated nature of this content, mistakes and discrepancies are possible. Please consume this information with appropriate caution.
Useful Links
👨🏻🏫 Book IELTS 💾 FOI 🧮 Calculator 🗳️ FY2025-26 Guide to Australian PR
📗 FY2025-26 Migration Planning Levels 🔖 Frequently Asked Questions 📞 Useful phone numbers and emails 📋 Visa Application Document List 🏘️ Guide to Housing, Jobs and Community 📲 Whatsapp Groups ☎️ Book Consultation to explore your 189/190/491 Skilled Visa Options
