Some speculations on the 190 processing time. Long story...

Some speculations on the 190 processing time.

Long story short: by the end of the 2026-2027 budget year, both the 50% and the 90% benchmarks for 190 processing time may fall back within 12 months.

Below is the reason.

On 30 June 2026 (some other sources already got their FOI reply), there were 24196 backlogs for 190 visa.

It is important to put numbers in a relative picture.

Let me define a current-backlog-level-to-current-year-planning-level ratio (hereafter: CBCP ratio), which divides the current backlog number (at the end of each month, per FOI reply sheets) using the planning level of the budget year for that month, which is unchanging.

On 30 June 2025, the CBCP ratio was 1.06, but on 30 June 2026, the CBCP ratio dropped to 0.73, quite a sharp drop.

Now compare it to the 189 visa.

If I remember correctly, the 50% and 90% processing time benchmarks for 189 both stayed within 12 months for the last 2 years (correct me if I were wrong), so this are quite useful reference points.

The CBCP ratio for 189 visa oscillated between 0.2 and 0.8 from July 2024 to June 2026, a 24-month period.

Furthermore, during these 24 months, the CBCP ratio stayed within the (0.40, 0.60) range for 9 months, and within the (0.35, 0.65) range for 13 months.

Why the wide oscillation?

Because 189 invitations were issued in large batches every few months, so you can have a sudden surge on pending cases for 189, then gradually, steadily decline to a low point, then the cycle repeats.

This is very unlike 190, whose CBCP ratio moves largely in a clear direction, except for start-of-the-year and end-of-the-year anomalies, which are normal.

Now we know the planning level of 190 for the 2026-2027 budget year, which is 35500 in total.

We do not know the total 190 allocation for the 2026-2027 budget year yet, but we know TAS and NT have got barely any more 190 allocations, and we have also heard that the 190 level for QLD has not changed, though it is not officially released yet.

Using all these current information, the picture is that 190 will almost certainly not go back to the 16500 level of the 2024-2025 budget year, and will almost certainly not be higher than the 14500 level, and will likely not be higher than the 14000 level.

We use 1.9 as the more generous family size and 1.85 as the more realistic family size, per more recent data.

Using 14000 and 14500 as two potential 190 allocation upper bounds, we yield 25900 (= 14000 * 1.85) as the lower upper bound and 27550 (= 14500 * 1.9) as the higher upper bound.

This yields, assuming all nominations are converted into actual visa lodgements before 30 June 2027, between 14596 and 16246 remaining backlogs on 30 Jun 2027, the end of the 2026-2027 budget year.

Dividing 14596 and 16246 by 35500, we yield 0.41 and 0.46 for 190 visa at the end of the 2026-2027 budget year.

If we consider the fact that there will be nominations issued near or at the end of the 2026-2027 budget year and thus some lodgements will take plane after 1 July 2027, then the CBCP ratio will be pushed even lower, perhaps even below the 0.4 level.

Two caveats.

First, we do not know the total 190 allocation level of the 2026-2027 budget year yet, just speculation, but they are almost certainly below 14500, and definitely not over the 15000 level.

Second, we do not know the planning and allocations for 190 for the 2027-2028 budget year, so the dynamic may change.

However, the point remains that with the current trajectory, most newer 190 applicants may likely be granted within 12 months, even for non-priority ones.