@ruthlessethan
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Expected Visa Grant
Offshore Non-PriorityAbout this estimate: Level 1 (priority occupations) and level 2 (onshore non-priority) each use grant samples from their own group.
Levels 3 and 4 (offshore non-priority) use a combined sample set because many past grant profiles do not say whether the person applied alone or with a partner or family. Combining them gives us more data for a stable estimate. Priority levels follow Direction 122.
Direction 122 started on 19 September 2026, so these estimates currently rely on data from before the change. We expect to need 4–6 weeks of data under the new rules, until around the end of October, for estimates to stabilise and reflect the new processing patterns. Treat them as provisional until then.
Your lodgement date position
Important: This chart only includes SmartVisaGuide users actively tracking their visa profile. It is not the complete population of Subclass 190 visa applicants.
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