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State of 190 Approx opening backlog last FY 38.5K Planning Level 33000 Net LODGED in FY is roughly 25000 Expected ending backlog at 30 June 2025 = 38.5+25-33=30.5K
We can also corroborate this from FOI data which shows: Backlog as at 31 May 2025 is 31000 So the approx estimate at end of June 2025 is 30.5K assuming 500 grants in June which broadly aligns with the 30.5K above.
Last FY planning level (33K) was set to ~85% of the opening backlog of 38.5K. If similar pattern is followed this FY then we can expect planning level of (0.85*30.5) ~= 26000
The 16500 SC190 nomination allocation was 50% of the planning level. If we assume similar ratio is maintained this FY, that would mean 0.5*26000 = 13,000 nomination places.
Note: This is highly speculative. There are many variables at play, and we need to wait for the actual planning levels and state allocation to make any decision.
