SmartVisaGuide Users Waiting for 189 Grant (7 Nov 2024 round...
@gregormendel (2M ago| Updated 2M ago)SmartVisaGuide Users Waiting for 189 Grant (7 Nov 2024 round onwards) Showing the lodgement dates on X axis and count of visa lodgements on Y axis. It seems bulk of the lodgements are till 20 Nov 2024.
FOI data should arrive in about one week. The FOI data (showing how much planning level and visa backlog remains as at 31 January 2025), in conjunction with the lodgement pattern shown above (which is roughly indicative of the overall lodgement pattern), can be used to guesstimate which date onwards are likely to flow into the next FY.
Seems like DHA is not processing based on priority occupations for this round. Is it true?
Very informative. But would like to know if the sample size would actually reflect pattern of the entire population.
I think it broadly should, and it also lines up with intuitions
Lodged on 26/11/24 with all documents including PCC and medicals. I wish I lodged earlier and uploaded PCC later.
I made a post cautioning on this: "From here we will see 189 processing time gradually rising to 6 months+, mainly affecting those applicants who received invites in Nov round and did not "promptly/quickly" lodged their visa." https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1E9GUiNx6H/
Damn, I applied on 18th of Nov and regretting the fact that I didn't lodge earlier. It doesn't seem to matter even if you're in a priority occupation. 😢
Ah ! You are ECT. Dont stress, you will get grant this FY, likely within next 8 weeks.
Oh hopefully, Thanks for the reply!
@gregormendel I see you do alot of research and you have developed a wonderful platform. I've a question for you. What does your analysis say regarding data available on svg and data co related from different FOIs. For instance per month grants for 190 are around 2500, how many grants are reported on svg? What is the scale of data? Like 1:20 ?
We have had some discussions (in our Facebook and Whatsapp groups) on this: for now, we believe we capture around 5% on average, potentially as high as 10% sometimes (of all thats out there)
so 1:20 baseline (and 1:10 on optimistic note)
Using date filters + event type == Visa Grant here, one can count how many visa grants in SVG database and compare that to grants reports in FOI data. This can give a good idea of the capture ratio.
Note FOI primary applicant numbers have to be compared (not total which includes secondary too)
Good insight. And yes, I regularly use svg to get grant count per day to have an idea about actual grants which may have taken to anticipate my turn.
We are going to deploy a feature (in user profile) soon which will do some of this for you, drawing on the characteristics on the SmarVisaGuide pool.
@gregormendel Nice, so based on this can I check how many of the June applicants have been granted via Database filters greg? Also, I kind of found a glitch in your new platform, so if I am filtering a user who has been waiting for Visa and select only occupation and subclass, it will show me each event of the same user individually, Made me feel there are a lot of people waiting for the same occupation, until I went in one of the events to find out its the same user over and over again. Hope it helps.
its not a glitch, the event title on each card will be different. Its because each event is a separate event on a separate date. Each card shows one event. You can filter by event type to make it one card per user.
// I check how many of the June applicants have been granted via Database filters greg// Yes check here Event Type Visa Application Date to and Date from (put June dates) Subclass and Check Visa Granted Only
I dont think it's exactly true. As ECT I think you should receive grant within 8 weeks, whereas some of the non-priority ones who might have even lodged before you, might have to wait longer.
They are processing FIFO so I have no hope apparently 😂 thanks for your reply Gregor.