Processing time trends for 189, 190, 491 visas Before the...
@william_prm_adler (51m ago| Updated 51m ago)Processing time trends for 189, 190, 491 visas
Before the analysis, let me talk about one fundamental understanding and one assumption first.
The fundamental understanding is that the primary factor affecting processing time trend is the relationship between (a) the number of lodgements and (b) the number of grants for the same financial or budget year.
If (a) < (b), it means there will be less and less applicants competing for more available slots.
If (a) > (b), it means there will be more and more applicants competing for less available slots.
Is your occupation priority or regular? Are you onshore or offshore? Are you single or have dependent or dependents? These all matter, but these are all secondary factors, because they all operate within the hard constraints of supply (new grants) versus demand (new applications), so they only change the magnitude within the general direction.
The assumption is that this year, the number of 190 and 491 allocations will likely not change, perhaps a slight increase, but based on what have seen in TAS & NT announcements and the speculation that States and Territories are not happy with their allocations this year (as seen in the ISCAH post), the increase will not be significant, so the number of new applications lodged this year will only be slightly higher.
If the allocation numbers turn out to be very different, then the following analysis may become invalid.
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TLDR:
This year, 190 looks very good, 491 looks not good, and 189 remains to see, depending on the invitation patterns.
If you have already lodged a 190 application, there is no reason to worry. There may be some delays, but everything is getting faster.
On the one hand, 190 is likely the most promising of the three in terms of processing time trend.
During the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 budget years, the number of 190 grants exceeded the number of 190 applications by 4216 (33264 - 29048) and 10457 (33210 - 22753), respectively, or 14673 in total.
This year, if the 190 allocation number only increases slightly, while the 190 grant number is 35500, we can expect another 10000+ reduction of backlogs, and thus, we will see 190 processing time getting even faster.
On the other hand, 491 does not look good, though whether it will look really bad or not remains to see.
During the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 budget years, the number of 491 grants exceeded the number of 491 applications by 6582 (23798 - 17216) and 9403 (24612 - 15209), respectively, or 15985 in total.
It looked pretty good during the last two years, but this year, there are only 14110 combined grant slots for 491 and 494 visas, and based on previous data, among these combined grant slots, no more than 75% will be 491 places, which means no more than 10000 places.
Meanwhile, if the 491 allocation also increases slightly, then we will likely see around 16000 new 491 applications this year, pushing backlogs higher and processing time slower.
Now, 189 is the wildcard.
During the 2024-2025 and 2025-2026 budget years, the number of 189 applications exceeded the number of 189 grants by 677 (17913 - 17236) and 3654 (20730 - 17076), respectively, or 4331 in total.
This is an opposite pattern, as 189 has been pushing backlogs higher while 190 and 491 have been reducing backlogs.
At the same time, we do not know how many 189 invitations will be issued and how many invitations will be accepted and turned into actual applications, so if the trend of more 189 applications than 189 grants continues, then we may see a gradual slowing of 189 processing times.
Thanks for clarification 🙌