The 190 visa 12-month processing time analysis Due to the...
@william_prm_adler (1H ago| Updated 1H ago)The 190 visa 12-month processing time analysis
Due to the length of my post, I will divide it into several parts within the same post, with the sequence number written at the start of each subpost, so everyone can follow easily.
Also, since I have already got my 190 visa granted, I will become less active on this forum and SVG WhatsApp groups, but I may still contributed from time to time.
(Part I)
Before I start writing anything, let me emphasize something again: the processing times on the DOHA webpages are only proxies for visa processing time trend, but they do not directly indicate your likely waiting time.
Why? Because the DOHA webpage processing time is calculated based on the distance between the dates of grant of visas approved or refused during that month (or whatever calculation window) and their respective lodgement dates, meaning, for example, if DOHA is, for whatever reason, allocating more resources processing much older or much newer cohorts, then the processing times may look deceptively fast or slow.
Now let me start defining three concepts.
Concept 1: the lower 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 10/12-month processing percentage.
It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the previous calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.
For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of July 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.
If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of July 2023, then it took him or her 10 full months to be granted.
If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of July 2023, then it took him or her 12 full months to be granted.
Hence, it is called the lower 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a tight-window definition, and also called the 10/12-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 10 and 12 full months.
Concept 2: the standard 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 11/13-month processing percentage.
It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the same calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.
For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of August 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.
If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of August 2023, then it took him or her 11 full months to be granted.
If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of August 2023, then it took him or her 13 full months to be granted.
Hence, it is called the standard 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a standard-window definition, and also called the 11/13-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 11 and 13 full months.
Concept 3: the upper 12-month processing percentage, also known as the 12/14-month processing percentage.
It calculates by dividing the remaining backlog number of the month at the end of the next calendar month next year by the number of lodgement of the month.
For example, it divides the backlog number of the August 2022 cohort at the end of September 2023 by the lodgement number of the August 2022 cohort.
If a person lodged on the last day of August 2022 and was granted on the first day of September 2023, then it took him or her 12 full months to be granted.
If a person lodged on the first day of August 2022 and was granted on the last day of September 2023, then it took him or her 14 full months to be granted.
Hence, it is called the upper 12-month processing percentage, because it offers a loose-window definition, and also called the 12/14-month processing percentage, because all these grants take between 12 and 14 full months.
Showing 4 comments
TLDR: I think it is almost certain that over 65% of those who lodged their 190 visas between 1 July 2025 and 30 June 2026 will be processed within 12 months, and anywhere between 70% and 90% is possible.
(Part III)
Now you can see, due to the backlog reduction, the processing time is reducing fast.
Now the trickier part: what percentage of the 2025-2026 cohorts will be granted within 12 months?
Before reading the next part, please consult my previous post regarding the CBCP ratio.
So, for the 2023-2024 budget year, the CBCP ratio started at 1.64 and ended at 1.29, and between 30.47% and 31.08% of those lodged between 1 July 2023 and 30 June 2024 were processed within 12 months, depending on the calculation window.
For the 2024-2025 budget year, the CBCP ratio started at 1.18 and ended at 1.06, and between 43.64% and 51.34% of those lodged between 1 July 2024 and 30 June 2025 were processed within 12 months, depending on the calculation window.
For the 2025-2026 budget year, the CBCP ratio started at 1.06 and ended at 0.73, and by 31 July 2026, 56.60% of those lodged between 1 July 2025 and 31 December 2025 and 56.97% of those lodged between 1 July 2025 and 28 February 2026 were already processed.
It is not very easy to establish the relationship between the planning level number, backlog number, CBCP ratio, and how many of those lodged within a certain month or a certain year will be processed within 12 months, because it depends on the planning level (how many 190 visas will be granted) and allocation level (how many 190 lodgements will be invited) of the next year.
However, what we can say for certain is that the current trend seems to support both (1) the decrease of the backlog number and (2) the decrease of the CBCP ratio, and this is a good sign.
If anyone wants to ask me how many of the 2025-2026 budget year cohort will be processed within 12 months, then my answer is: almost certainly over 65%, almost entirely sure, and anywhere between 70% and 90% is entirely possible, depending on the full allocation level of the 2026-2027 budget year, which does not seem likely to be much higher.
are the 3 posts same?
Of course not the same.
Oh I see what you were asking. Just realized there was a network issue and the post was sent 3 times. The other 2 have been deleted.
(Part II)
Now the numbers.
For cohorts lodged from 1 July 2023 to 30 June 2024, the monthly lodgement numbers were as followed:
[1395, 552, 1663, 1763, 2406, 2831, 2086, 1900, 1761, 1281, 1456, 1003]
Using the tight/standard/loose-window definitions, their backlog numbers after 12 months were:
[1094, 475, 1471, 1170, 1495, 1982, 1600, 1413, 1292, 851, 730, 401]
[1097, 474, 1466, 1160, 1490, 1975, 1559, 1409, 1295, 850, 730, 401]
[1089, 472, 1470, 1153, 1478, 1972, 1553, 1404, 1294, 833, 731, 401]
Using the tight-window definition: 69.53% remaining, 30.47% processed within between 10 and 12 full months.
Using the standard-window definition: 69.19% remaining, 30.81% processed within between 11 and 13 full months.
Using the loose-window definition: 68.92% remaining, 31.08% processed within between 12 and 14 full months.
You can find the numbers for the cohorts lodged between 1 July 2024 to 30 June 2025 and do the calculations.
Using the tight-window definition: 56.36% remaining, 43.64% processed within between 10 and 12 full months.
Using the standard-window definition: 53.18% remaining, 46.82% processed within between 11 and 13 full months.
Using the loose-window definition: 48.66% remaining, 51.34% processed within between 12 and 14 full months.
Now you can see:
Using the tight-window definition, there was a surge of 13% for the 12-month processed percentage from the 2023-2024 budget year to the 2024-2025 budget year;
Using the standard-window definition, there was a surge of 16% for the 12-month processed percentage from the 2023-2024 budget year to the 2024-2025 budget year;
Using the loose-window definition, there was a surge of 20% for the 12-month processed percentage from the 2023-2024 budget year to the 2024-2025 budget year.
Now we can use the standard-window logic to look at the cohorts lodged during the 2025-2026 budget year:
For the July 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 52.70% processed after 12 months, out of 1110 primary and secondary applications;
For the August 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 69.61% processed after 11 months, out of 102 primary and secondary applications;
For the September 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 44.47% processed after 10 months, out of 398 primary and secondary applications;
For the October 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 47.00% processed after 9 months, out of 483 primary and secondary applications;
For the November 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 56.49% processed after 8 months, out of 1071 primary and secondary applications;
For the December 2025 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 63.37% processed after 7 months, out of 1859 primary and secondary applications ;
For the January 2026 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 65.50% processed after 6 months, out of 2191 primary and secondary applications;
For the February 2026 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 50.46% processed after 5 months, out of 2592 primary and secondary applications;
For the March 2026 cohort, by the end of July 2026, 40.47% processed after 4 months, out of 2191 primary and secondary applications.