Just some observations based on following this community for...

Just some observations based on following this community for some time.

Honestly, comments on posts about tracking grants like “dead,” “super quiet,” or “losing all hope” are so unnecessary. They don’t help anyone waiting and only spread desperation. It’s toxic, and you should stop doing that. If you’ve “lost hope,” then move on, delete your profile, and withdraw your application.

If you applied in 2023, it’s obvious you are going to get your grant sooner rather than later—next week, next month, or in the next few months. As of the end of May 2025 (and June, since they pretty much ran out of quotas by the end of May), there are still 6,394 190 visa applications from 2023 that will be processed soon.

DHA messed up by giving so many quotas to states in FY22-23, and now you’re suffering. But also, if it wasn’t for that and the quotas were small, most wouldn’t even have been invited in the first place. You were given a chance, so value that, since, let’s be honest, in the grand scheme of things, no one is waiting for you in Australia with open arms unless you have family there already, and the country would do just fine without you. If that wasn’t the case, you’d be in Australia on a 482 or BVA, waiting for the grant of a PR visa.

There are 11,541 visa applications lodged in all of 2024, so those applicants (including myself) will be getting their visas soon as well. If DHA needs to give out 30–33k visas per year and they peak at around 4,200 per month, it’s not that long of a wait at this point. At 3–4k visas per month, they can clear the backlog quite quickly, and those with simple cases and no red flags will be getting their visas faster than those who require more investigation and verification.

For folks who applied in 2025, they will also see a lot of grants this FY since quotas will allow for that, but not everyone will get their grant, and they will have to wait for the next fiscal year to clear the backlog. As of May 25, there are already 13,000 applications in that cohort.

DHA will keep working on easy applications ahead of the simple chronological order since it’s important for them to show that not every application takes 25 months to process, and it does affect their KPIs. There is no fairness here, and you shouldn’t be looking for it. You will get your grant when you get your grant, and in the meantime, improve your English, save more money, improve your skills, research employment opportunities, rent, etc.