Why are SkillSelect LODGED visa statistics different from the same data obtained from Freedom of Information Requests ?

Background

How many visas are currently waiting for a grant for each subclass ? There are broadly two ways of obtaining this information:

• SkillSelect Dashboard
• Freedom of Information (FOI) request

Please read this guide on interpreting SkillSelect Dashboard statistics before proceeding to the next section.

Introduction

• SkillSelect dashboard data shows the number of EOIs and their status, where the number of EOIs would refer to number of Primary applicants if this EOI was selected in invitation rounds.
• When an EOI goes into LODGED status, it can spawn multiple visa applications (primary, secondary etc)
• The Freedom of Information (FOI) data is obtained through a FOI request, so it is expected to be accurate in terms of number of actual visa applications.

Comparison of SkillSelect and FOI data as at end of Feb 2023

We are doing a comparison of the SkillSelect dashboard data with data obtained from FOI ##FA23/02/01631.

Key Observations

1. Number of EOIs is LODGED status (Column 1) in SkillSelect don't match with the number of primary visa applications on hand (Column 4) as per the FOI data. The ratio of the two numbers is shown in Column 6.
2. Plausible Explanation: Applicants are selecting multiple subclasses in a single EOI. If they get a 190 invite, for example, and have selected 189+190 in their EOI, and this EOI goes into LODGED status - then the EOI will show as LODGED in SkillSelect statistics for both subclasses. However, the actual visa will only be lodged for Subclass 190. This means SkillSelect overestimates the number of EOIs in LODGED status for a specific subclass. This can be further confirmed by looking at an FOI for Financial Institution Branch Manager (149914), an occupation which is only eligible for 491, so 189/190 overlap can not occur. The primary applicants reported in this FOI as at 31 Jan 2023 (44), exactly match the LODGED for this occupation as at 31 Jan 2023 (44). The extent of the subclass overlap in EOIs can be understood further as:
   1. People who apply and aim for 189 generally are eligible for (since they are MLTSSL) and have a good profile for 190 too. The tendency is to tick 189 and (190 with few or all states).
   2. People who apply and aim for 190 may not be eligible for 189. Moreover some large allocation states like NSW require that you select only NSW+190 to be eligible, so people dont usually select 189 when they are aiming 190.
   3. People who apply and aim for 491, may not be eligible for 189 and 190. Moreover, they may aim for 190 in same EOI, but very rarely put 189 in the same EOI.
   4. Therefore, this cross-EOI pollution is highest in subclass 190 which is affected from 189 as well as 491 EOIs. Subclass 491 is second worst affected, and Subclass 189 is the least worst affected.
3. Looking at Column 3, 4 and 5 - we can see that a typical 491 application has a larger family size (~2) compared to 189/190. Subclass 189 and 190 attract more single applicants and/or 2 applicant families.
4. Due to the subclass overlap discussed above, SkillSelect data can’t be directly used to accurately know the number of pending visa applications, but can still be used in a comparative sense over months to analyse the overall trend. Alternatively, you can apply the correction ratio shown in column 6 above to adjust the SkillSelect numbers, to roughly obtain the actual number of visa applications. This would be not be too accurate but would still give a meaningful estimate of on hand visa applications.

How to convert SkillSelect LODGED statistics into "Visas Pending Grant" ?

The procedure described here is very crude, but is still broadly indicative of the "Visas Pending Grant" i.e. visa backlog:

• Step 1: Take the SkillSelect LODGED number as at end of most recent month. For example: Subclass 491 LODGED as at 30 April 2024 is 17,639. This is the number of EOIs in LODGED status.
• Step 2: Do a correction for cross subclass pollution ratio as described above. For 491 the pollution factor is 1.38. So correcting for this, the real number of 491 EOIs in LODGED status = 17.639/1.38 ~= 12, 780 EOIs in LODGED status.
• Step 3: Now that you have the real number of 491 EOIs in LODGED status, we need to multiply this by the average family size of a 491 EOI. Column 4 above indicates this to be ~ 2.2 family members. Therefore the total number of 491 visas LODGED and waiting grant = (12780 X 2.2) = 28,166

Note: The above is not meant to be precise, since the 2 ratios used (pollution ratio and family size) can vary over time. But it still give a broadly indicative result, of the actual number of visas pending grant as at end of the latest month.