What is the expected 189 cutoff for 233211 Civil Engineer in next round ?

🎲 SUMMARY REPORT

What is the expected 189 cutoff for 233211 Civil Engineer in next round ?

• Last major 189 round was on 8 December 2022
• Onshore cutoff for Civil Engineer was 85 points
• Offshore cutoff for Civil Engineer was 85 points

🎡 Total 3465 EOIs >= 65 points were SUBMITTED (waiting for invitation) as at 30 November 2022

• Looking at the points distribution of SUBMITTED EOIs, onshore candidates had to be ahead of 70.3% EOIs in terms of points
• 70.3 percentile refers to the 85 points cutoff mark for onshore candidates
• Looking at the points distribution of SUBMITTED EOIs, offshore candidates had to be ahead of 70.3% EOIs in terms of points
• 70.3 percentile refers to the 85 points cutoff mark for offshore candidates

Current SkillSelect pool for Civil Engineer in terms of SUBMITTED EOIs

• 🎡 Total 5824 EOIs >= 65 points were SUBMITTED (waiting for invitation) as at 30 June 2023
• 🚨 The EOI Pool has expanded by a factor of 1.68 compared to 30 November 2022
• This means competitiveness has increased significantly at each points level

🏋️‍♀️ SUCCESS PERCENTILES IN LAST ROUND

• ✅ In the last round, an onshore Civil Engineer with total points more than 70.3% of EOIs got an invite.
• ✅ Similarly, an offshore Civil Engineer with total points more than 70.3% of EOIs got an invite
• The current pool has 5824 EOIs at various points levels
• We can apply this success percentile numbers to current pool
• We can assume relative competitiveness hasnt significantly changed (e.g. no sudden disproportionate influx of low/high points candidates)

🔮 EXPECTED CUTOFF IN NEXT ROUND

• 🇦🇺 ONSHORE cutoff is expected to be 85 points
• 🌍 OFFSHORE cutoff is expected to be 85 points

🎈 However the EOI pool has significantly increased in size (1.68 times)

• FY24 189 allocation hasnt significantly changed from previous year. So a larger pool means more applicants at each points level

• This will result in the points cutoff being pushed upward. An additional 5 points (atleast) should be added to our calculated cutoffs

• Therefore:

  • 🇦🇺 ONSHORE cutoff can touch 90 points
  • 🌍 OFFSHORE cutoff can touch 90 points