How does DHA calculate visa processing time?

DHA reports processing time for each month, at the end of each month.

The method of calculation of processing times is described further.

For a given subclass (lets take Subclass 190):

1. Take all visa grants in the given month.
2. For each grant, calculate how long it took for grant (grant date - apply date). Let's calculate this in days.
3. Do this for every grant, and you will have the processing time in days, for each grant
4. Let's say there were 1000 grants in the month. So now you have a list of 1000 processing times (one for each grant)
5. Sort these times in ASCENDING ORDER
6. For example they might look [34, 68, 122, 148 ........, 365, ..., 965] days (i.e. a list with 1000 elements sorting in ascending order)

Now you have a clean sorted list of 1000 processing times for the month (one per grant).

What is the 25% Processing Time for Subclass 190?

It's the 250th element in the 1000 element sorted list above.

Why? because 25% of the grants were processed in that time or less.

If the 250th element is 72 days, its means DHA will report: 25% Processing Time for Subclass 190 is 72 days (2.4 months).

In other words, 25% processing time for the month is the time taken to process 25% of the visas granted in that month. Similarly, 50%, 75% and 90% time can be calculated.

Does this time tell something about future processing times?

Lots of people will tell you "this is what DHA has already processed, this will not tell you the future processing time".

This is technically correct. But the point is, if DHA keeps processing in the same manner as they have done in the above month, then processing time will remain the same, and you can predict your future grant date (by adding the processing times to your visa application date).

If DHA changes strategy (which they do regularly), then the future may/will be different from the past.

But its clear that looking at the past is not completely useless here, as you can clearly see what DHA is doing, how thats changed over the last few months, and then you can use this information to deduce the range of processing times one can expect in future.

Is an increase in Processing Time reported by DHA bad ?

Not necessarily. It could be bad, or could be good. More discussion is required.

For example: if the department stops processing older files and only processes visas lodged in last 15 months for example, then the maximum processing time will show up as 15 months. The 90% time might end up being 12 months. If they keep this policy for 3 months, it will appear that the department is doing well, keeping the 90% processing time at 12 months.

But is it good? The department has simply abandoned older files, the ones waiting for 16 months, 20 months, or even 36 months sometimes. This reduction in processing time is therefore not a healthy one.

What happens next? At some point they will go back to older files, because they can't just abandon them permanently. But the moment they start processing and granting the older files, then based on above calculations, the processing time will shoot up. The 90% may hit 24, or even 36 months, depending on how old the files are.

But is it bad? It is clear that tidying up old pending files is good for the health of the system in the long term. Abandoning old files is not a sustainable solution.

Conclusion: Increases or decreases in processing times needs to be evaluated carefully. What is good in one set of conditions, may be bad in another set of conditions, and vice versa. Always, look at a 3 to 6 month time window, never a specific month. The longer time window gives better perspective, as to how DHA is going about the overall backlog.

Resources

• Freedom of Information Request - FA 23/10/00359
• Check DHA Visa Processing Time
• Check Processing Time on SmartVisaGuide